India’s biggest election prize: Can the Gandhi family survive Modi?

 The pocket boroughs of Amati and Rae Bareli have stood by the first family of Indian politics through ups and downs. On May 20, they will be tested again.

India's Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi, second right, and his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vardar, second left, greet their supporters during a roadshow on April 3, 2024 [R Satish Babul/AFP]

Aretha/Rae Bareli, India – Irfan*, a tea stall owner, is convinced that change is afoot.

“There has not been much traffic on this road from Rae Bareli to Amati ever since the Congress lost power in 2014,” he says, referring to two towns and a party that for decades have been synonymous with one family – the Nehru-Gandhi's, or as they are more commonly known, the Gandhi's.

The first family of Indian politics has ruled the country for almost half of its journey since independence in 1947, with three generations of prime ministers: Jawaharlal Nehru, his daughter Indira Gandhi, and grandson Rajiv Gandhi. And through ups and downs, when the Congress has been in power and out of it, Amati and Rae Bareli, separated by 62km (38 miles), have for the most part stood by the family. They’ve served as safe constituencies for India’s grand old party in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, which is India’s largest electoral prize: with 80 seats out of the nation’s total of 543 in the lower house of parliament.

In 2019, that tradition received a dramatic jolt when the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi – son of Rajiv – lost Amati by 55,000 votes to Smriti Iran, a feisty minister in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) government, which has been in power nationally since 2014. Rahul’s mother and former Congress chief, Sonia Gandhi, retained Rae Bareli for the party, the only seat it won in Uttar Pradesh as the BJP swept the nation, winning 303 seats overall.

Now, five years later, the towns are a tense microcosm of the national battle between the BJP and opposition Congress; between Modi and the Gandhi's. Rahul is replacing his 77-year-old mother from Rae Bareli this time. BJP’s Iran is seeking reelection from Amati. Each of them is expected to face tough competition from the other’s party. Amati and Rae Bareli vote on May 20 in India’s giant election.

At stake are more than two seats: If the BJP wins Rae Bareli and retains Amati, it will effectively have wiped out the Gandhi family and the Congress from Uttar Pradesh. Conversely, say opposition leaders, a Congress win in both seats could seed anti-BJP momentum in a state that often decides who rules nationally.

Irfan, from his vantage point of Teloi town near Amati and Rae Bareli, believes the political winds are blowing in the direction of the Congress. “Storm is building in both the cities, which will impact the entire state,” he says.

Yet, storms can be unpredictable – and Amati and Rae Bareli know that.

A supporter of India’s Congress party wearing an outfit with portraits of former Indian Prime Ministers Indira Gandhi, top, and Rajiv Gandhi, waves to the camera at an election campaign rally addressed by Rahul Gandhi in Thane, on the outskirts of Mumbai, India, on March 6, 2014 [File: Raja Nish Kakadu/AP Photo]